Why Is Pi Network Price Declining Despite Crypto Market Recovery?

Pi Network’s price continues to face downward pressure, even as the broader cryptocurrency market shows signs of recovery. With a significant drop of over 65% from its previous peak of $3 earlier this year, Pi Network is struggling to regain bullish momentum. Several key factors, including increasing supply pressure, uncertainty over exchange listings, concerns over centralization, and weak technical indicators, are contributing to the ongoing bearish sentiment.

In this article, we will dive deep into the reasons behind Pi Network’s decline, the impact of token unlocks, investor concerns, and the potential outlook for the price in the coming months.

1. Massive Token Unlocks Fuel Selling Pressure

One of the most significant factors dragging down Pi Network’s price is the continuous unlocking of tokens, which increases the circulating supply and exerts selling pressure.

1.1 Upcoming Token Unlock Schedule

According to data from Pi Scan, nearly 99.3 million PI tokens are set to be unlocked over the next 30 days. At the current price levels (as of March 25), this supply is worth approximately $91 million.

A daily average of 3 million tokens will be unlocked over this period, further flooding the market with new supply. The most significant single-day unlock will occur on April 3, when 6.8 million PI tokens are expected to enter circulation.

The unlock schedule for the upcoming months is even more aggressive:

• April: 115.57 million PI tokens

• May: 182 million PI tokens

• June: 222 million PI tokens

With such a large influx of tokens expected in the coming months, selling pressure is likely to increase, making it difficult for the price to stabilize or recover.

1.2 The Impact of Token Unlocks on Price

When a large volume of tokens is unlocked, early holders and miners may look to cash out, leading to a flood of sell orders. This oversupply drives prices lower, especially when demand remains weak.

Historically, significant token unlocks have negatively impacted cryptocurrencies, especially when market sentiment is already fragile. If the unlocked Pi tokens are not absorbed by new buyers, further price declines could be expected.

2. Exchange Listing Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment

Another major factor affecting Pi Network’s price is the ongoing uncertainty regarding its listing on major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Many investors were expecting Binance or other major exchanges to list Pi Network by now, but no official confirmation has been provided. This prolonged uncertainty has frustrated the community and discouraged new investors from entering the market.

2.1 Why an Exchange Listing Matters

For any cryptocurrency, being listed on major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken significantly boosts liquidity, accessibility, and overall market confidence. Without such listings, trading Pi Network remains limited to certain smaller exchanges, reducing its exposure to a larger investor base.

2.2 Centralization Concerns Further Weigh on Sentiment

Another issue creating doubts among investors is the perceived centralization of Pi Network’s node infrastructure. Unlike most decentralized blockchain networks, where nodes are independently operated, Pi Network’s SuperNodes are controlled by the Pi Core Team (PCT).

Although the number of SuperNodes has increased from three at launch to 42 today, Pi Network has not disclosed a transparent selection process for these nodes. This lack of clarity raises questions about the project’s decentralization, which is a core principle of blockchain technology.

Some investors worry that excessive centralization could lead to governance risks or limitations on network participation, reducing the project’s credibility and long-term adoption.

3. Token Burns Have Not Significantly Boosted Price

In an attempt to counteract the increasing supply, some analysts have suggested that burning a large portion of Pi tokens could help stabilize the price.

On March 24, cryptocurrency analyst Dr. Altcoin suggested that burning between 60 to 100 million PI tokens could help restore price levels closer to $1. While Pi Network recently burned 10 million tokens, reducing the total supply to 6.77 billion, this move has had little impact on price recovery.

3.1 Why Token Burns Can Help—but Only to an Extent

Token burns permanently remove a certain number of tokens from circulation, theoretically reducing supply and increasing scarcity. However, for burns to significantly impact price, they must be large enough to counteract new supply entering the market.

With hundreds of millions of tokens set to be unlocked in the coming months, the recent 10 million token burn is relatively small in comparison. If the Pi Core Team decides to burn a larger number of tokens, it may help stabilize the price in the longer term.

However, for now, supply pressure continues to outweigh the effects of burns, keeping prices low.

4. Weak Technical Indicators Suggest Further Downside Risk

From a technical analysis perspective, Pi Network’s price action remains bearish, with multiple indicators signaling continued downward pressure.

4.1 Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Current Price: $0.9253

• Support Levels: $0.85, $0.70

• Immediate Resistance: $1.00

• Next Upside Target: $1.34 (if $1.00 is broken)

If Pi Network fails to hold above $0.85, a drop toward $0.70 becomes likely. On the upside, breaking above $1.00 could shift momentum toward a potential target of $1.34.

4.2 Bollinger Bands Indicate Seller Control

The price is currently hovering near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that sellers remain in control. This suggests that unless strong buying momentum emerges, further declines are possible.

4.3 RSI and MACD Show Bearish Signals

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 43.27 (not yet oversold, but weak)

• Moving Averages (10, 20, 30 periods): Indicate continued selling pressure

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish trend

The RSI at 43.27 indicates that Pi Network is not yet in oversold territory, meaning there could still be room for further downside before a potential bounce. The MACD is also bearish, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward momentum in the near term.

5. What’s Next for Pi Network? Potential Scenarios

Given the current market conditions, several possible outcomes could shape Pi Network’s price trajectory in the coming months:

5.1 Bearish Scenario: Further Declines Toward $0.70

If selling pressure remains strong and Pi fails to reclaim the $1.00 level, the price could continue trending downward toward $0.70 or even lower. This scenario would likely be driven by continued token unlocks and weak investor confidence.

5.2 Neutral Scenario: Sideways Trading Between $0.85 and $1.00

Pi Network may consolidate between $0.85 and $1.00 if demand balances out the ongoing supply increases. In this case, investors will be closely watching exchange listing updates and token burn announcements.

5.3 Bullish Scenario: Break Above $1.00 and Recovery Toward $1.34

A strong breakout above $1.00 could shift momentum toward $1.34, especially if major exchanges announce Pi Network listings or if the team implements more significant token burns.

Final Thoughts: Pi Network Faces Critical Challenges

Pi Network’s price decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including large token unlocks, exchange listing uncertainty, centralization concerns, and weak technical indicators. While some analysts believe burning additional tokens could help stabilize the market, the overwhelming supply pressure remains a significant hurdle.

For Pi Network to recover, it will need:

1. A major exchange listing announcement (e.g., Binance, Coinbase)

2. Stronger demand to absorb unlocked tokens

3. A more aggressive token burn strategy

4. Improved market confidence and clearer decentralization plans

Until these key factors are addressed, Pi Network is likely to remain under pressure, with further downside risks in the near term.